Демографските процеси – история, тенденции и перспективи
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.37075/RP.2012.1.04Абстракт
В студията се разглеждат демографските процеси, възгледите за демографския преход и други теории за населението, както и някои от по-разпространените очаквания за бъдещето в развитието на населенията. В демографската ситуация в развитите страни, в т.ч. и в България, се откриват редица особености, като преди всичко е спадът в раждаемостта през втората половина на двадесетия век и породеното от това стареене на населенията със съответните социално-икономически последствия. Спадът в раждаемостта е резултат от своеобразното и трудно проследимо преплитане на множество фактори, за което свидетелстват разнообразни и понякога противоречиви обяснения на този феномен. През последните десетилетия науката все по-често се обръща към бъдещето на демографските процеси, правят с различни прогнози на населенията, които показват не само какво да се очаква, но и какво да не се очаква от бъдещето в тази област.Литература (библиография)
Наумов, Н. & Чолаков, Н. (1992). Population aging and its Impact on Fertility in Europe. Demographic Causes and Economic Consequences of Population Aging (Ed. Stolnitz,).
Преса, Ролан & Сугарева, Марта (2006). Речник по демография. София: Авалон. ISBN: 954-9704-12-2
Notestein, Frank W. (1950). The Population of the World in the Year 2000. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 45(251), 335-345. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1950.10501128
Sudoplatov, A. (1978). The apologetic role of modern bourgeois demography. The Theory of Population (Ed. Valentey, D.), pp. 406.
Landry, А. (1934). La revolution demographique. Paris: INED-Presses Universitaires de France. ISBN: 978-2-7332-1014-7
Sauvy, Alfred (1956). Theorie generale de la population. Paris: Presses Universitaires de France.
Coale, A. (1973). The Demographic Transition. Proceedings of the International Population Conference.
Chesnais, J. C. (1992). The Demographic Transition. Oxford: Oxford University Press. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198286592.001.0001
Thompson, W. (1929). Population. American Sociological Review, 34(6), 959-975. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/214874
World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision. (2005). United Nations, DESA, Population Division.
Gubhaju, Bhakta B. & Moriki-Durand, Yoshie (2003). Below-replacement fertility in east and southeast asia: Consequences and policy responses. Journal of Population Research. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03031792
WHO (2005). The World Health Report: 2005, Make Every Mother and Child Count. Geneva: WHO.
Easterlin, Richard A. (1976). Population Change and Farm Settlement in the Northern United States. The Journal of Economic History, 36(1), 45-75. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S002205070009450X
World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database. (2012). United Nations, Population Division.
Boyle, Phelim P. & Freedman, Ruth (1985). Population waves and fertility fluctuations: Social security implications. Insurance Mathematics and Economics, 4(1), 65-74. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-6687(85)90031-9
Poynter, J. (1998). Malthus and his critics. Malthus and his legacy. The population debate after 200 years (Ed. Canberra).
Manning, Wendy D. (1995). Cohabitation, Marriage, and Entry into Motherhood. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 57(1), 191-200. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/353827
Bachrach, A., Hindin, M., & Thomson, E. (2000). The Changing Shape of Ties that Bind: An Overview and Synthesis. Ties that Bind (Ed. Waite), pp. 3-16.
Axinn, W. G. & Thornton, A. (2000). The Transformation of the Meaning of Marriage. Ties that Bind (Ed. Thornton, A.), pp. 147-165.
Bumpass, L. (2002). Family Related Attitudes, Couple Relationships and Union Stability. Meaning and Choice (Ed. Lesthaeghe), pp. 161-184.
Bumpass, Larry & Lu, Hsien-Hen (2000). Trends in cohabitation and implications for children s family contexts in the United States. Population Studies, 54, 29-41. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/713779060
Press Release 136/2005 - 25 October 2005. (2005). Eurostat.
van De Kaa, D. & Lesthaeghe, R. (1987). Europe's Second Demographic Transition. Population Bulletin, 42(1), 1-57. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/B0-08-043076-7/02134-3
Lesthaeghe, R (1995). The Second Demographic Transition in Western Countries: An Interpretation. Gender and Family. Change in Industrialised Countries (Ed. Mason, Jensen), pp. 17-62. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198289708.003.0002
Bank, World (2007). World Development Indicators 2007. Washington, DC: The World Bank. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-6959-3
The ILO Population Projection Model - ILO-POP. (2002). International Labour Office.
Jha, Prabhat, Peto, Richard, Zatonski, Witold, Boreham, Jillian, Jarvis, Martin J, & Lopez, Alan D (2006). Social inequalities in male mortality, and in male mortality from smoking: indirect estimation from national death rates in England and Wales, Poland, and North America. The Lancet, 367-370. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(06)68975-7
Mackenbach, Johan P., Huisman, Martijn, Andersen, Otto, Bopp, Matthias, Borgan, Jens-Kristian, Borrell, Carme, Costa, Giuseppe, Deboosere, Patrick, Donkin, Angela, Gadeyne, Sylvie, Minder, Christoph, Regidor, Enrique, Spadea, Teresa, Valkonen, Tapani, & Kunst, Anton E. (2003). Inequalities in lung cancer mortality by the educational level in 10 European populations. European Journal of Cancer, 126-135. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejca.2003.10.018
Kalben, Barbara Blatt (2001). Why Men Die Younger: Causes of Mortality Differences by Sex. Schaumburg, Ill.: Society of Actuaries.
ЦСУ (1975). Демографска статистика. София: Наука и изкуство.
Русев, Б. (1973). Анализ на състава, естественото и механичното движение на населението. София: НСИ.
Чолаков, Никола Иванов (2007). Трудова и социална статистика. София: Университетско издателство "Стопанство". ISBN: 978-954-494-900-6
Чолаков, Н. & Малешков, Хр. (2003). Статистическата информация за естественото движение на населението и миграцията в България и някои насоки за нейното усъвършенстване. Научни трудове 2003.
Goodman, Leo A. (1968). Stochastic models for the population growth of the sexes. Biometrika, 55, 469-487. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/55.3.469
Schweder, Tore (1971). The precision of population projections studied by multiple prediction methods. University of Oslo, Institute of Economics. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2060681
Pollard, J. H. (1973). Mathematical Models for the Growth of Human Populations. London: Cambridge Univ. Press.
Чолаков, Н. et al. (1976). Проект за смислово съдържание на автоматизираната система на демографската статистика. Сборник трудове по статистика.
UN (1983). Indirect Techniques for Demographic Estimation. New York: United Nations.
World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database. (2009). United Nations, Population Division.
Millennium Development Goals, Goal 4: Reduce child mortality. (2012). UNDP.
Millennium Development Goals, Bulgaria 2008. (2008). United Nations Development Programme.
Василев, Н. (2008). Анализ на някои здравно-демографски и други показатели във връзка с детската смъртност у нас. Клиника по обща и онкологична гинекология, Военно-медицинска академия – София.
Festy, P. (2000). Looking for European Demography, Desperately?. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations Secretariat, New York. UN/POP/PRA/2000/19
Hayutin, A. (2009). Challenges and Opportunities of Population Age Shifts. Stanford Center on Longevity.
Gould, W.T.S. (2009). Population and Development. New York: Routledge (Routledge Perspectives on Development). DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203001059
Samuelson, Paul A. (1958). An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money. Journal of Political Economy, 66. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/258100
Henry, Louis (1961). Some data on natural fertility. Eugenics Quarterly, 8(2), 81-91. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/19485565.1961.9987465
Coale, Ansley J. & Trussell, T. James (1974). Model Fertility Schedules: Variations in The Age Structure of Childbearing in Human Populations. Population Index, 40(2), 185-258. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2733910
Coale, Ansley J. & Trussell, T. James (1978). Technical Note: Finding the Two Parameters That Specify a Model Schedule of Marital Fertility. Population Index, 44(2), 202-213. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2735537
Indirect Techniques for Demographic Estimation. (1983). United Nations.
Coale, Ansley J. & Demeny, Paul (1983). Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations. Second Edition. Princeton: Princeton University Press. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-177080-8.50010-X
United Nations Population Division (2012). Population, Resources, Environment and Development Databank. United Nations Population Division.
US Census Bureau (2003). The Foreign-Born Population in the United States. US Census Bureau.
Population Division of the Department of Economic & Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2012). World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision.
Population Division of the Department of Economic & Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (2012). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision.
Pham, D. & Hetland, A. (2002). Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway. Demographic Research, 409-454. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2002.6.15
Scherbov, S. & Mamolo, M. (2006). Probabilistic Population Projections for the EU-25. European Demographic Research Papers 1.
Файлове за сваляне
Публикуван
Брой
Раздел (Секция)
Лиценз
Авторски права (c) 2012 Никола Чолаков (Автор)
Публикация с Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Авторите запазват авторските права върху своите произведения.
Всички публикации се разпространяват при условията на лиценза Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
